Strategy

OBUG 4Q2024 Summary: Advancing Systematic Trading Strategies

OBUG 4Q2024 Summary: Advancing Systematic Trading Strategies

The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) had an engaging fourth quarter of 2024, scanning the markets for the week ahead, strategy backtesting, and collaborative learning. Using tools like EdgeRater and the ThinkorSwim backtester, we worked to gain a deeper understanding of Dr. Ken Long’s methodologies by systematically exploring their strengths, edges, and limitations. With 93 weekly recorded OBUG sessions to date plus 10 dedicated tutorials on backtesting with EdgeRater, we continued to refine our trading expertise through data-driven approaches. This quarterly summary highlights our market analysis using Dr. Long's 30-period Regression Line Slope Z-scores, and the insights gained from our backtest studies.

Owl Bundle User Group Meeting Recap: Strategy Ranking and Key Insight

Owl Bundle User Group Meeting Recap: Strategy Ranking and Key Insight

In our recent Owl Bundle User Group meeting, we explored the ranking of our 26 different trading strategies, focusing on identifying those that offer the best risk-adjusted returns, robustness, and consistency. This analysis is based on Dr. Ken Long's methodologies and was conducted using backtesting results from SPY, covering the period from January 1, 2010, to October 28, 2024. We utilized EdgeRater for backtesting and statistical analysis to ensure comprehensive evaluation and reliability of the results.

Building a Portfolio of Non-Correlated Strategies: Insights from Our Latest OBUG Correlation Study

Building a Portfolio of Non-Correlated Strategies: Insights from Our Latest OBUG Correlation Study

At AbleWayTech, our Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) brings together traders seeking to sharpen their skills and diversify their strategies. Our members follow Dr. Ken Long's trading methodologies and techniques. In our recent session, we conducted an in-depth correlation analysis to determine how to best achieve a smoother equity curve and minimize drawdowns through the use of non-correlated trading systems. Here, we share some key findings.

OBUG 3Q2024: Exploring the Market with Dr. Ken Long’s Methodologies

OBUG 3Q2024: Exploring the Market with Dr. Ken Long’s Methodologies

Are you looking to refine your trading skills and deepen your understanding of systematic trading? The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) is a community of dedicated traders focused on analyzing and implementing trading systems based on the teachings of Dr. Ken Long. Our weekly meetings provide a collaborative environment where members actively backtest, review, and optimize strategies that Dr. Ken Long developed, adding new layers of insight to these proven methods.

The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG): Insights and Innovations in Trading

The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG): Insights and Innovations in Trading

Do you follow Dr. Ken Long’s trading methodologies and wish to collaborate with like-minded individuals? Look no further! The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) is the community for you. Our weekly meetings are dedicated to dissecting market trends, optimizing trading strategies, and sharing valuable insights to help you navigate the complexities of trading. We focus on developing and refining trading systems using EdgeRater for rigorous backtesting , optimization, and multifactor and Monte Carlo analysis.

Discover the Thrills of Trading with the Owl Bundle User Group - July 2024 update

Discover the Thrills of Trading with the Owl Bundle User Group  - July 2024 update

The Owl Bundle User Group (OBUG) is a vibrant community of enthusiastic traders who diligently follow Dr. Ken Long’s trading methodologies. We gather weekly to dissect market trends, optimize trading strategies, and share valuable insights that help us navigate the complexities of trading. Here’s a snapshot of what our typical meetings entail and why you might want to join our dynamic group.. Use of EdgeRater and Thinkorswim in trading Dr Ken Long's trading methodologies.

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading Part 3: The Regression Line Fractal Framework (RLFF)

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading Part 3:  The Regression Line Fractal Framework (RLFF)

By using the fractal relationships of the 10, 30, 90, and 270-period linear regression lines we get a view of how market participants on different timeframes with very different agendas are interpreting price action. We also can start to get a feel of the breath of the market’s cycles of expansion and contractions and how the extreme conditions of large stretches and tight pinches of the regression lines can alert us to the potential of some fantastic opportunities.

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading: Part 2: The 30-Period Linear Regression Line

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading: Part 2: The 30-Period Linear Regression Line

The next indicator we can add to our toolkit is the 30-Period Linear Regression Line, aka the “RL30”. As would be expected, the RL30 is similar to the RL10 but is based on 30 periods of price data. This makes it three times slower than our RL10 indicator. A simple difference, but the implications and uses of this simple change shouldn’t be underestimated.

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading Part 1: The 10-Period Linear Regression Line

Indicators in Application: Dr. Ken Long’s Tools for Trading  Part 1:  The 10-Period Linear Regression Line

This is precisely what we do in the Owl Group following Dr. Ken Long’s style of trading when we use the 10-Period Linear Regression Line (dubbed the “RL10” for brevity’s sake). We know we’re going to be susceptible to all sorts of heuristics and biases in analyzing price information, so why not have a highly effective and efficient and robust single indicator we can apply to any timeframe and financial instrument.

Owl Bundle User Group Quarterly Update - Q1 2024

Owl Bundle User Group Quarterly Update - Q1 2024

What differentiates our study group is the development of Swing trading systems based on Dr. Ken Long's strategies and techniques. Leveraging the robust platform of EdgeRater, we meticulously refine strategies aligned with Dr. Long's principles. This focus is intended to equip our members with knowledge to compete in the markets.

Key Considerations to become a Full-Time Trader

Key Considerations to become a Full-Time Trader

When considering a change of profession to become a full-time market trader, there are numerous planning considerations that a working professional should take into account: Assess Your Passion for Trading: Famous traders often emphasize the importance of having a strong passion for the markets. Without it, the daily grind of trading can become burdensome. Educate Yourself: Before making the transition, it's crucial to educate yourself about different trading strategies, financial instruments, and market behavior. Financial Cushion: Ensure you have enough savings to support yourself during the initial phase where you might not make a profit. Risk Management: Understand and apply risk management techniques. Never risk more than you can afford to lose on a single trade. Develop a Trading Plan: A well-thought-out trading plan is vital. This should include your strategy, risk tolerance, and goals.

Strengths and Limitations of Technical Analysis

Strengths and Limitations of Technical Analysis

The first task of technical analysis is to identify trends in market price movements. The second task is to identify turning points. Technical Analysis focuses on trend detection because whatever has been happening in the past tends to continue happening. As Tony Sagami puts it, "…trends in motion tend to keep moving until they’ve run their course." In the markets, trends continue until there is a shift in the expectations of the market participants. That is when identifying turning points becomes important.

Charting a Disciplined Course: Trading Lessons in Self-Discipline from the Monkey King and Guanyin

Charting a Disciplined Course: Trading Lessons in Self-Discipline from the Monkey King and Guanyin

In the art of trading, self-discipline is the key to success. Drawing inspiration from the Monkey King and Guanyin, we can learn to emphasize the importance of a concise trading plan, trading in sample sets, and maintaining a meticulous trade journal. Like mastering any craft, trading requires continuous improvement and a commitment to self-discipline. By measuring progress against personal goals and staying true to a well-defined plan, traders can navigate the market with the skill and finesse of the Monkey King himself.

Appreciating the Value of Variation in the Markets

Appreciating the Value of Variation in the Markets

Knowing we were in a downward-trending market gave us an additional edge and a higher probability of the trade working in our favor. The main takeaway from appreciating the value of variation in market data is to be aware of the fluctuations in the overall market, have a reliable method to gauge and measure these variations, and develop a systematic approach to exploit them. By incorporating these principles into their trading strategies, traders can position themselves to capitalize on the dynamic nature of the market and potentially achieve more favorable trading outcomes.

Empowering Owl Bundle User Group's Trading Strategies with EdgeRater: A Game-Changing Approach

Empowering Owl Bundle User Group's Trading Strategies with EdgeRater: A Game-Changing Approach

The Owl Bundle User Group has recently started to use the EdgeRater tool to compare various trading strategies and deterimine their respective edges. EdgeRater is a versatile software application that scans for trading opportunities, conducts strategy backtesting, enables in-depth chart analysis, optimizes rule parameters, performs Monte Carlo analysis, and conducts multi-factor analysis. This article delves into this collaboration and explores the capabilities of the EdgeRater tool through the lens of the recently developed Ken Long templates - the Swing Systems and Critical States templates.

Mastering the Art of Trading Systems

Mastering the Art of Trading Systems

Across the following ten chapters, we will delve into various facets of trading systems, equipping you with the knowledge and tools needed to navigate the complexities of modern trading. Whether you are an aspiring trader seeking to embark on your trading journey or an experienced trader looking to refine your existing strategies, this guide offers valuable insights and practical advice to help you master the art of trading systems.

Mastering the Top-Down Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Finding Profitable Trades

Mastering the Top-Down Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Finding Profitable Trades

Today I’d like to go through an example of how we can use our logic chain concept to do a top-down analysis of the market to find symbols in a critical state that we can be ready to trade the next day. In the Owl Group we use a “plan, prepare, execute, assess” process for trading in a systematic and professional way. A large part of the ‘prepare’ phase consists of having reliable ways to find targets.

The preparation phase of trading

The preparation phase of trading

It is during the preparation phase that the trader will conduct critical rehearsals of important decisions with as many iterations and scenarios as is practical and useful. The best rehearsals duplicate the conditions under which the decision in question must be made. A trader’s rehearsal, therefore, could include reviewing critical chart patterns or practice trading with a trading simulator or paper trading while the market is open or prototype trading with very small position sizing and real money.

"Find the Movers" with Top Down Analysis

"Find the Movers" with Top Down Analysis

As an update to our prior article on our Thinkorswim trading user group, we will be embarking the next several weeks on “Finding the movers”. Based on feedback from our members, we will be focusing on identifying trade candidates based on the top down “Logic chain” strategy as developed by Dr Ken Long.